That hasn’t happened, because the other Republican rivals hate each other more than they fear Trump. So I think he’s more likely to win the GOP nomination than not, but if he wins he’ll on to lose in November, probably quite heavily, regardless of whether Hilary or Bernie is his opponent.

But anything could still happen.

For the Democrats, Clinton is way ahead of Sanders – nearly 2.5 times the delegates and nearly halfway to the target. So something would have to go seriously bad for Sanders to close that gap. I think Clinton will win that race.

The other thing to remember is that many of these primary votes are among party supporters and so they are not necessarily representative. For example, Texas has population of about 27m. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that 50% are eligible to vote, so that is 13.5m. Trump won the state with about 356000 votes – about 2.6% of the voting population. So if Trump does get the nomination, he may be able to depend on the party faithful but that doesn’t necessarily translate to the wider public. By comparison, Clinton got 503000 votes in the Democrat race although the Democrat turnout was only about 85% of the Republican turnout.