Religion and Politics Blog

Card-carrying Liberal Democrat. My views are my own, and do not necessarily reflect party policy.

Schrödinger’s Brexit

Ever since June, we have been a nation in limbo. The government doesn’t have a clue. The opposition has abdicated entirely. The one party with a coherent position has just eight seats in the House of Commons.

Every single time either of the three pro-Leave cabinet ministers says anything about Britain’s future relationship with Europe, they’re immediately slapped down by the Prime Minister and we’re told whatever they say doesn’t represent government policy. But if you try to ask about the actual government policy, you soon realise that there isn’t one.

Aside from repeating the meaningless mantra “Brexit means Brexit”, Theresa May’s only policy seems to be avoid making any irreversible decision until some sort of consensus emerges that she can sell both to her own party and to the country at large. At the moment there doesn’t seem to be any position that significant factions won’t consider as a betrayal. I fear that she will put short term party unity ahead of the interests of the country if her hand is forced.

If we had a competent opposition, they’d be making mincemeat of this lot. But unfortunately the Labour Party appears to have been eaten alive from the inside by parasitic wasps. Not to mention that they too as as divided as the Tories on the issue, and that division cuts through the party’s electoral base.

A recent opinion poll showed that 62% of the electorate are not prepared to pay any economic costs in order to reduce migration. It’s hard to interpret that as anything other that a lack of public support for a so-called “Hard Brexit”. When push comes to shove, a strong majority will accept freedom of movement in return for the retaining the benefits of the Single Market. But will the hardliners on the Tory right accept this?

At the moment the country risk sleepwalking into a hard Brexit. It’s up to those of us who don’t want that to happen to push that option out of the Overton Window.

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What now for the British Centre-Left?

So, as was widely predicted, Jeremy Corbyn has been re-elected as Labour leader.

The YouGov exit poll is quite telling, and reveals the extent to which Labour has been the victim of a successful infiltration and take-over by the far left. 60% of those who were Labour members before May 2015 voted for Owen Smith, while 83% of those who joined after the May election defeat voted for Jeremy Corbyn

It does look as though the hard left has assumed total control, and given that Corbyn’s supporters do not seem to care about winning general elections, not even a thumping defeat at the hands of the Tories in 2020 is likely to shake their faith. The bastard offspring of 70s sectarian Trotskyism and millennial Tumblr identity politics is not interested in reality, only the mantras repeated within their bubble. It’s more a religious cult than a political party, every election defeat can be explained away by blaming the unbelievers.

Where does that leave the British centre-left? And more importantly, where does this leave the Liberal Democrats?

I have a strong suspicion that we’re only in the early stages of a much bigger political realignment in which existing parties will break up or change out of recognition, and new parties will emerge. A lot depends on what happens to the Tory party in the coming months and years.

The expected post-referendum implosion of the Tories hasn’t happened only because Theresa May has carefully avoided taking an actual position on implementing the result that referendum. The moment she comes unequivocally down on either side on the Single Market vs. Hard Brexit question, there’s a good chance that half the party will see the decision as betrayal. If that happens it will be hard for any leader to hold the party together.

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Poisonous Memes

The use of these images is not an endorsement of their conent

Was there ever a better illustration of the Horseshoe Effect than this?

Let’s get one thing out of the way first. The one on the left, as awful as it is, is orders of magnitude less objectively harmful than the one on the right. The Trump campaign ad is shouting-Fire-in-a-crowded-theatre levels of dangerous. The radfem meme is merely offensive, and is most unlikely to lead to gangs with sea-green hair roaming the streets in search of low-status men to beat up. In its original incarnation it had little impact beyond the echo chambers of Tumblr and Twitter.

But that doesn’t let their meme off the hook. It’s still ugly and dehumanising, and I do have a problem with value systems that see that sort of bigotry as acceptable because reasons. But more importantly, Trumpism and the alt-right didn’t happen in a vacuum. In so many ways their identity politics of the disenfranchised is a mirror image of the dehumanising identity politics of the regressive left, and has risen as a reaction against it. So it’s hardly surprising they’ve started copying the regressive left’s most toxic memes.

And as this well-written piece explains, the whole “Poisonous M&Ms” analogy is nonsense that cynucally targets our lizard brains, and relies on the inability to understand statistics or risk in a remotely rational manner.

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You won’t beat Trump by shaming voters

virtue-signalling

When you see something like this (It’s a screenshot of a tweet promoting the Boing Boing blog), you have to wonder exactly what they’re thinking.

Remember the recent all-female Ghostbusters remake? “Dudebro manbabies are losing their shit“, went the pre-release publicity. The subtext was “If you don’t love this film, you’re a nasty evil misogynist”, trying to shame people into watching it.

It didn’t work. The film, which at least according to the reviews was a fair-to-middling Hollywood popcorn movie, flopped badly at the box office. It turned out that the marketing succeeded in alienating a large section of the potential audience, and the only people it appealed to were those who would have gone to see the film anyway.

Why is anyone trying to emulate that disastrous marketing fail?

Perhaps it’s people who have little idea how anybody outside their middle-class progressive bubble thinks or feels? Whatever it is, the stakes are far, far higher than a generic Hollywood remake. A Trump victory could devastate the world. And Clinton supporters are sleepwalking into that terrifying reality.

To be fair, we in Britain made the same mistake in the European referendum. And 52% of the electorate told us to go screw ourselves.

Of course, Boing Boing are not the Clinton campaign as such. Cory Doctorow, who runs the blog, is a strong supporter of Jeremy Corbyn. So perhaps these people don’t really care about winning elections?

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When Codes of Conduct Go Bad

David Auerbach notes that the ToDo Group have abandoned their Open Code of Conduct because they were unable to form any sort of consensus over its contents. He is correct in stating this particular clause would be a potential ligitation nightmare.

Our open-source community prioritised marginlised people’s safety over privileged people’s comfort, we will therefore not act on complaints regarding “reverse -isms”, including “Reverse racism”, “Reverse sexism” or “cisphobia”.

Reading that, you are forced to conclude whoever wrote than has never heard of the Requires Hate saga in SF Fandom, or has completely failed to learn any lessons from it. Such a code of contact won’t survive contact with a bad actor who identifies as belonging to a marginalised group, for starters. And it fails to acknowledge that “marginalised”, “privileged” and even “safety” and “comfort” are highly subjective and context-dependent things. Auerbach is dead right; lawyers could have a field day with that.

The online social justice movement has a contentious “Punching up/punching down” dynamic which draws from Critical Race Theory and Intersectional Feminism. But they are not uncontroversial mainstream beliefs, and there is considerable opposition which doesn’t just come from hardcore racists and sexists.

Codes of conduct are a necessary evil in a world where bad actors exist. But a successful code of condut requires a broad consensus from the community to which it applies. A code of conduct that explicitly hard-codes the values of one narrow political tribe is always going to look like a power-grap. It just plays into the hands of those who oppose codes of conduct in principle.

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Is British Industry really “Fat and Lazy”?

When Trade Secretary Liam Fox accused British industry of being “fat and lazy”, I immediately thought of this film, dating from 1959 when the world was a very different place.

Back then, Britain had trading deals with what until recently been the Empire, in which we imported food and raw materials in exchange for manufactured goods. Railway networks from Australia to Africa relied on motive power built by English Electric, North British and Beyer Peacock.

Half a century later, though we still have a train-making industry, we’re a net importer of railway equipment, which comes from America, Germany, Spain and Japan. In the past two decades Britain’s railways have seen deliveries of large numbers of locomotives, but just one, the steam locomotive “Tornado” was actually built in Britain. Though even its boiler came from Germany. The idea of a railway in Africa or New Zealand buying British today is unthinkable. They buy from America, Japan and China now.

What happened?

It’s probably a complex combination of many factors, not least the technological shift from steam to diesel which left some British train builders unable to adapt. It’s ironic that the two steam locomotives in the film remained in traffic for much longer than most of the diesels built for British Railways shown in the early part of the film. The comparison between the service lives of the South African class 25s and the BR D600 diesel-hydraulics, both the products of North British, is exceptionally stark. That company is long gone now; they proved themselves incapable of building reliable diesels, and went bust.

But a major factor has to be the way British industry, used to favourable trading arrangements dating from the days of the British Empire, was simply unable to compete in a global marketplace.

So I think Liam Fox, like so many other Brexiteers, is hankering for the days of Empire.

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Jerry Barnett on Identity Politics

It’s a few months old now, but this piece by Jerry Barnett “Identity Politics is Killing Solidarity and Fuelling Fascism” on the Sex & Censorship blog is still worth a read.

But the Labour Movement, the foundation of the old left, effectively collapsed during the 1980s and 90s for a variety of reasons. The left dwindled, and found new power bases: no longer in factories or council estates; instead in academia and the public sector. It lost touch with working class people, and lost interest in poverty. It instead adopted identity politics, dividing people by race, gender, sexuality just as it once united people across these lines. It became whiter and more middle-class, and gradually came to represent the interests of white, middle-class people above all others. Step by step, from the 80s onward, the left took on the attitudes of the old fascist movements, seeking to divide society into isolated, opposing groups of people.

Barnett also laments the rise of neo-puritanism, once the preserve of the Christian Right, which has now taken root in part of the left.

The conclusion is sadly predictable

Is it surprising, therefore, that poor whites would now also choose to unite around their racial identity? Is the rise of Donald Trump or of Nigel Farage so surprising in this climate? This new ascent of the fascist right was clearly preempted and driven by the rise of fascist politics on the left. We have no chance of resisting the rise of of the far-right in Europe and America if we adopt fascist methods and ideas ourselves. We need to rediscover the solidarity of the old left: we must stand shoulder to shoulder with those who suffer, however much – or little – they resemble ourselves.

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Fellow-travellers of the Far Right?

Nick Cohen is yet again beating his usual drum of the moral bankruptcy of the left, from Julian Assange to Jeremy Corbyn, highlighting theit unconditional support of Vladimir Putin, despite Russia’s corrupt crony capitalism representing everything socialism is supposed to oppose.

Wikileaks’ double standards and blind spots, its collaborations and self-censorship, go to the root of the crisis on the left. Or rather, because there are many lefts, the crisis on the version of the left that dominates the Labour party and most of the West’s allegedly radical culture. To put it bluntly, what’s its problem with standing up to the Kremlin? What gives? And, more to the point, who is on the take?

It’s difficult to tell whether it’s a case of misplaced nostalgia for the Soviet Union, or the sordid idea that any enemy of the West should be supported in principle. But when you end up on the same side as both Donald Trump and the European far-right, it’s just possible you’re not on the side of Good.

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Jeremy Corbyn and the two UB40s

Yes, I know this is fake. Owen Jones didnt actually say that.

You just can’t make stories like this up.

On Tuesday, Corbyn appeared in London with the UB40 led by Robin Campbell, the guitarist and singer from the original Birmingham band which enjoyed dozens of chart hits during the 1980s and 90s, including three UK No 1 singles.

At a press conference at the Royal Society of Arts in London, Campbell said: “We support Jeremy Corbyn because he is the only one willing to speak up for working people, who have been badly treated by successive governments, including New Labour, in recent decades.

Unfortunately for Jeremy Corbyn, there are now two rival UB40s following an acrimonious split a few yeara ago

However, in a microcosm of Corbyn not reflecting all views within Labour, it transpired that this statement did not speak for every version of UB40.

The other band is fronted by Ali Campbell, Robin’s younger brother and the original group’s lead singer, and features other original members Mickey Virtue and Terence “Astro” Wilson. Asked whether they shared the other UB40’s views on Corbyn, the group declined to endorse him.

“Ali, Astro and Mickey have always been great supporters of the Labour party, and they look forward to the new leader taking the Labour party back into government at the earliest opportunity,” the band said in a statement released through their PR company, which said it was the only comment the band wanted to make at this time.

Have UB40 turned into a metaphor for the Labour Party? Where do the two rival Wishbone Ashes and Barclay James Harvests stand on the issue?  Has anyone asked Andy Powell, Martin Turner, John Lees or Les Holroyd? Are the Oliver Dawson Saxon or any past or present members of Yes available for comment?

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So we have a government in disarray because it can’t reconcile the ill-informed vote from a recklessly misjudged referendum with economic reality. Meanwhile the leader of the opposition is more interested in declaring that after-work drinks are sexist. You wonder why I despair…

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