Trumpton

Colum Paget has a long screen on Trump’s election and the failure of the middle-class left

In many ways Hillary Clinton’s campaign was the apex of this champagne-feminist madness. I don’t blame Hilary, who I think is unfairly hated, and who in some ways strikes me as a modern Lady Jean Grey: surrounded by people telling her she’s going to be Queen without really having done the work to make it possible. The insider skinny was that Bill Clinton was constantly bemoaning the need to reach out to rural and working class whites. However, he was overridden by ‘experts’ who, as so many people in leftist politics now think in terms of ‘white supremacy’ and ‘patriarchy’ basically said “Fuck those redneck neckbeard dudebros, this is about a woman getting to be president.” Thus the campaign appeared to be about Madeline Albright and Gloria Steinem ticking off an item on their feminist bucket list.

He may or may not be letting Hillary off the hook here. The failures of the political establishment were many, and one of them was making her the candidate in the first place. The time was wrong for an establishment technocrat, and her combination of middle-class identity politics with subservience to Wall Street was never going resonate outside the bubble.

The liberal left needs a new vision to replace the one that has clearly failed, and needs to build a broad-based popular movement that can actually win elections. Which means that pundits or political bloggers who don’t get why Hillary lost and double down on failed ideas do not deserve anyone’s attention. Some of their screeds can be boiled down to little more than “Voters are over. Voters don’t have to be your electorate“.

Trump’s victory is a disaster not just for America but for the whole world. Like Brexit, it was a wholly avoidable disaster by a complacent and out-of-touch political establishment who were so deep in their filter bubbles they didn’t see it coming.

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As we remember the fallen on the anniversary of the end of World War One, the best memorial is to avoid sleepwalking into another entirely avoidable global war.

Posted on by Tim Hall | 1 Comment

Trumps victory was a defeat for the US press

It wasn’t just that Hillary was the wrong candidate. Will Rahn of CBS News reflects on just how badly the press, inlcuding himself, screwed up.

It’s a profound failure of empathy in the service of endless posturing. There’s been some sympathy from the press, sure: the dispatches from “heroin country” that read like reports from colonial administrators checking in on the natives. But much of that starts from the assumption that Trump voters are backward, and that it’s our duty to catalogue and ultimately reverse that backwardness. What can we do to get these people to stop worshiping their false god and accept our gospel?

We diagnose them as racists in the way Dark Age clerics confused medical problems with demonic possession. Journalists, at our worst, see ourselves as a priestly caste. We believe we not only have access to the indisputable facts, but also a greater truth, a system of beliefs divined from an advanced understanding of justice.

That’s the fantasy, the idea that if we mock them enough, call them racist enough, they’ll eventually shut up and get in line. It’s similar to how media Twitter works, a system where people who dissent from the proper framing of a story are attacked by mobs of smugly incredulous pundits. Journalists exist primarily in a world where people can get shouted down and disappear, which informs our attitudes toward all disagreement.

That last line is quite telling, and I have seen the way journalists like David Aeurbach and Liana Kernzer got blacklisted and subject to personal harassment for not keeping to the party narrative.

Auerbach’s Twitter is full of righteous anger now, and you can understnnd why.

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Coming Soon….

lonely-robot-the-big-dream

… to a Merch Desk near you…

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Croydon Tram Disaster

Photo from RAIB report

Photo from RAIB report

While everyone was still in a state of shock over the news from across the Atlantic, news reports filtered through back home that a tram had overturned in Croydon and people were trapped.

By mid-morning it was clear it was quite a serious incident. Then came the news that there were multiple fatalities as well as more that fifty injured, and the tram driver had been arrested on suspicion of manslaughter. It had gone from a serious incident to a major disaster.

The Rail Accident Investigation Board (RAIB) has put out a preliminary report, possibly to quell media speculation. It stated that the curve on which the tram derailed had a speed limit of 12 mph, and, as ought to have been evident from the aerial photographs in the media, the tram had been travelling well in excess of that.

It’s the first multiple-fatality rail accident in Britain since the Ufton Nervet crash way back in 2004.

You don’t associate trams with accidents on this scale. Since the opening of the Manchester Metrolink in 1992, trams have returned to the streets of several of Britain’s cities, with a good safety record. While there have been a few fatal incidents involving pedestrians or other road users, I don’t recall a single fatality to a tram passenger before.

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Lonely Robot, Touchstone and Ghost Community for Trinity 2

Trinity Live 2 Poster

After the success of Trinity Live in 2014, the all-day progressive rock charity show at Leamington Assembly, they’re doing it again. This year’s bash wil feature Ghost Community, Touchstone and Lonely Robot, with more acts to be announced.

“It is with great pride and excitement we can announce, in association with Prog! magazine that Trinity will be back with a bang on Saturday 27thMay 2017. Put the date in your diaries folks and get ready to rock in support of some fantastic causes!

The venue will again be The Assembly in Leamington Spa. We have the lineup complete and we have many special events going on throughout the day. The day will be split in to 3 parts – the afternoon session, the evening session and the after show.

We are also delighted to announce that the headline act will be the amazing Lonely Robot. This is an exclusive as it will be first public performance of the all new, yet to be released, Lonely Robot II album. As many of you know, their performance in London in December 2015 was a sell out and featured a fantastic stage show. This full production will also be brought to the Trinity stage. To top it off, we can also announce that Touchstone and Ghost Community, will be part of the evening session. Three rocking bands to get you dancing in the aisles.
The afternoon bands will be announced very soon. The after show party will have a very special guest live performance plus one of Jerry Ewing’s infamous DJ sets. A fantastic way to end a fantastic day with the bands and the organisers! Jerry will have you bouncing around that dance floor, we promise.

With your amazing support, the first Trinity show enabled the organisers to donate £12,000 amongst three cancer charities, and next year we want to smash that figure out of the ball park. Each and everyone of us has been exposed to someone who has dealt with cancer so let’s pull together and help raise some serious money to allow amazing organisations to fight this vile disease.

Get them while they’re hot and please, let’s light up social media and make this an event that will shine brightly for years to come and which will continue to raise more money, every year it takes place. Through music, through love, through adversity, together we can all make a real different”

It it’s anything like as good as the last one, this will be a show well worth seeing. And it’s all in a good cause.

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President Trump represents the failure of the Liberal Left

Trump’s victory is America’s Brexit. A victory for narrow-minded populism. Again, even though not everyone who voted for Trump is a racist bigot, every knuckle-dragging racist idiot believes half the country agree with them, and minorities will pay a bitter price for the swagger in their step.

But just like Brexit it was an avoidable tragedy caused by a complacent liberal establishment out of touch with significant parts of their own nation.

When The Guardian and rightwing Sad Puppy author Brad Torgersen are in agreement, something is happening.

Here’s Thomas Frank writing in The Guardian

What we need to focus on now is the obvious question: what the hell went wrong? What species of cluelessness guided our Democratic leaders as they went about losing what they told us was the most important election of our lifetimes?

Start at the top. Why, oh why, did it have to be Hillary Clinton? Yes, she has an impressive resume; yes, she worked hard on the campaign trail. But she was exactly the wrong candidate for this angry, populist moment. An insider when the country was screaming for an outsider. A technocrat who offered fine-tuning when the country wanted to take a sledgehammer to the machine.

She was the Democratic candidate because it was her turn and because a Clinton victory would have moved every Democrat in Washington up a notch. Whether or not she would win was always a secondary matter, something that was taken for granted. Had winning been the party’s number one concern, several more suitable candidates were ready to go. There was Joe Biden, with his powerful plainspoken style, and there was Bernie Sanders, an inspiring and largely scandal-free figure. Each of them would probably have beaten Trump, but neither of them would really have served the interests of the party insiders.

We’ve had months of Hillary supporters endless repeating the mantra that if you don’t love Hillary it’s because you’ve sexist. And it didn’t work. Hillary Clinton did not lose purely because she was a woman.

The roots of Trump’s victory lie in the dirty way in which the Clinton campaign fought Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries. All those lies and smears painting him and his supporters as misogynists. Those malicuously dishonest hit-pieces by toxic ideologues railing at the “Bernie Bros” who never actually existed.

We’re about to endure a fightening four years, but it’s four years in which to build a movement to defeat Trump or his successor in 2020. Perhaps we should take comfort in these words from Stephen Tall written a few days before the election?

I remember how important the 2004 Bush-Kerry election seemed at the time. Here, after all, was a chance for America to deliver a slap-down to its neo-con president. Matthew Parris wrote a typically shrewd article arguing that a second Bush win was the best outcome, that his ideas had to be allowed to reach their logical, failed conclusion so that voters could see they’d been tested to destruction. Indeed, his victory set up Obama’s in 2008. I say that to console myself in case Trump wins. Sometimes bad things happen for a reason (or, more rationally, Good Things follow Bad Things because reversion to the mean). Besides if we think the 2016 election has been gruesome, think how much worse 2020 might be. Chances are Hillary will be a one-term president. Chances are, if she wins tomorrow, the presidency will revert to the Republicans after 12 years of Democrat incumbency. Then imagine a Trump with some self-control, a Trump capable of pivoting, a Trump who understands how to organise a campaign. And then keep your fingers crossed a Republican emerges who can put Trump’s proto-fascism back in its box.

He may be optimistic, and may be underestimating the harm four years of Trump might do. But the only rational response to electoral defeat must be to begin the work of winning the next one.

And if the tide of right-wing populism is to be rolled back, the liberal-left needs a compelling alternative vision. At the moment, it has none, and that’s a massive part of the problem.

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The Election

Statue of LibertyA lot of people have compared the US elections with 1930s Germany, and there are indeed parallels. But do you know what it reminds me of?

The years leading up to “The Troubles” in Northern Ireland.

No historical parallel is exact, of course, but look at the similarities. An electorate that’s become polarised along tribal lines? The idea that the winners’ ability to completely screw over the losers is the legitimate spoils of victory? The use of gerrymandering and other electoral trickery to entrench the rule of one tribe?

Eventually in Northern Ireland, the centre couldn’t hold and things spilled over into open violence, a low-intensity civil war that lasted decades and cost thousands of lives.

Let us hope this is not America’s fate, and whoever wins tonight will govern on behalf of the whole nation rather than just their own tribe.

One of the two candidates almost certainly lacks the empathy or the wisdom to do that, and I don’t need to say which one that is.

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Great Western Electrification Woes

gwr-800The Great Western Electrification project has been going badly off the rails for a long time, running massively late with knock-on effects on subsequent electrification projects such as the Midland Main Line.

Now several sections are being deferred:

We have been clear that there have been difficulties with this programme. These were set out last year in the review of Network Rail’s delivery plan by Sir Peter Hendy. Following the re-planning of work that followed this review, the programme has been placed on a more efficient footing. A key part of this is the ongoing assessment of investment decisions so that passengers and taxpayers get maximum value.

As a result of this scrutiny from the Hendy review I have decided to defer 4 electrification projects that are part of the programme of work along the Great Western route. The 4 projects being deferred are:

  • electrification between Oxford and Didcot Parkway
  • electrification of Filton Bank (Bristol Parkway to Bristol Temple Meads)
  • electrification west of Thingley Junction (Bath Spa to Bristol Temple Meads)
  • electrification of Thames Valley Branches (Henley & Windsor)

This is because we can bring in the benefits expected by passengers – newer trains with more capacity – without requiring costly and disruptive electrification works. This will provide between £146 million to £165 million in this spending period, to be focused on improvements that will deliver additional benefits to passengers. We remain committed to modernising the Great Western mainline and ensuring that passenger benefits are achieved.

This looks worse that it is. Since the new class 800 trains are bi-mode they can run on diesel power for the last few miles into Bristol. The one deferment that makes less sense is the Didcot-Oxford section, which would prevent the use of GWR’s new class 387 EMUs on Paddington-Oxford semi-fasts. Will these trains terminate at Didcot with a DMU shuttle to Oxford in the interim?

The reasons for the delays in the Great Western electrification are many, but the biggest has got to be the fact that there hasn’t been a major main line electrification project in Britain for a generation, and the knowledge base has been lost. The people who managed the East Coast Main Line electrification in the late 1980s have long retired.

Commenter “Phil-b259″ on RMWeb (There are an awful lot of knowledgable people on that forum) lays out some of the reasons why the project has run into so many difficulties:

  • NR having hardly any experience in undertaking electrification projects thanks to Governments of all colours not undertaking any such schemes since privatisation.
  • NR not having key historic data due to much if it being thrown out as ‘not needed’ by Railtrack and the IMCs who were supposed to manage the infrastructure in the years immediately after privatisation.
  • NR making lots of mistakes (sometimes repeatedly) as it tries to re- learn all the skills necessary or rebuild its route knowledge to overcome (1) and (2)
  • The fact that most of the work all has to be contracted out leading to extra interfaces and potential sources for delay / dispute compared to 30 years ago when the work was all done ‘in house’
  • Poor project management on the part of NR and the seeming inability to get on top of things – though this again is in part due to the sheer size of the project.
  • Health and Safety regs having got tougher since the late 1980s with knock on effects on costs and what can be achieved in any given possession, etc.
  • The various big railway contractors (e.g. Balfour Beatty) having no recent experience of electrification work in the UK – for the same reasons as NR, i.e. a lack of Government action for over 20 years.
  • The Government dumping several big electrification schemes on NR within the space of six months and not taking into account its lack of action in the previous 20 years.
  • The Government pushing ahead with train procurement themselves resulting in the most expensive to lease in the Uk trains being delivered before the wires will be ready for them.

Is anyone else getting flashbacks to the 1955 Modernisation Plan?

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When Game Mechanics Matter

PolyhedralsGame writer James Cambias has a pair of blog posts on why game mechanics matter, and why game mechanics don’t matter. Both are sort of true, but both are a reminder that we’re still having these arguments.

There was a holy war in tabletop RPG land over this not so long ago.

One camp believed that everything that could possibly go wrong in a game session up to and including lack of trust between the players could be fixed with sufficiently advanced game mechanics. Even disruptive players could be dealt with by cleverly designing game systems to be as unappealing as possible to the wrong types of people. Fortunately that approach is largely discredited nowadays.

The other camp believed that the game mechanics didn’t matter at all, and any worthwhile group should be able to route around an unsuitable system. One manifestation was the idea that a one-size-fits-all system, usually some variant of D&D, should be forced on the entire hobby at glaive-guisarme point. Another was the idea that a competent GM should be able to patch obviously broken rules on the fly. Tell that to a GM who had to deal with a total munchkin of a player getting her hands on the hopelessly broken GURPS 3.0 Psychokinetics rules. I was that GM…

There is, of course, a position between those two extremes. For me, game mechanics matter when they get in the way of fun.

A couple of examples:

First, some of the baroque and obtuse dice-pool mechanics fashionable in the late 1990s meant it was next to impossible to have any meaningful idea of your character’s chance of success at any given task, which could be very frustrating in play. The worst ones had probability curves that were so screwy they made the numbers on the character sheet almost meaningless. It’s difficult to believe some of those systems were ever playtested as thoroughly as they should have been .

Another example is combat systems that bog down in play, especially when there’s a large group. If it takes four hours to resolve a barroom brawl that’s incidental to the main plot of the adventure, your system needs some serious streamlining. Or it’s just plain unsuitable for a game with eight players.

So, over to you. What game mechanics have fallen short for you in fun-obstructing ways and why?

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